Kifisia 0-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kifisia and Atromitos meet at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kifisia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Kifisia, 1 for Atromitos and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Kifisia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kifisia half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 72% versus Atromitos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 61% | Atromitos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.16 xG and Atromitos 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.868 / defence 1.147 | Atromitos attack 1.037 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.144. Data: 18 Kifisia games / 45 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 41%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Atromitos 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 62% | Atromitos 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Kifisia 1.16 / Atromitos 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.868 / def 1.147 | Atromitos attack 1.037 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Atromitos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Atromitos kick off?
Kifisia vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Atromitos?
Kifisia 0 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Kifisia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Atromitos part of?
Kifisia vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 32% chance of winning, Atromitos a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kifisia and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Atromitos?
Record (4 meetings): Kifisia 3W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Kifisia and Atromitos in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kifisia's attack rating (0.87) and Atromitos's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (1.04x) against Kifisia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 18/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.75
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.36
Atromitos xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.36 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Kifisia have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 7D 7L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Kifisia against 0.78 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Atromitos away?
Kifisia's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.12 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 3-0 on 4 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kifisia
1
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 3, Atromitos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Kifisia 0-3 Atromitos.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 62%, Atromitos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 50% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Kifisia's recent matches and 38% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 50% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Atromitos tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Kifisia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Kifisia 0-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.16 xG and Atromitos 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kifisia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Atromitos attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 41%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 61%, Atromitos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Atromitos's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.06 PPG, Atromitos 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.