Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kifisia encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis welcome Kifisia to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Kifisia — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Kifisia 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 Kifisia — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Kifisia in-play tendencies (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aris Thessalonikis 50% and Kifisia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Kifisia 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.842 / defence 0.799 | Kifisia attack 0.861 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output up. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Kifisia's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 47 games and Kifisia's last 20.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.91 | Draw 3.51 | Kifisia 5.18. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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