VfB Stuttgart 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as VfB Stuttgart face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 make the trip to Stuttgart Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FSV Mainz 05 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with FSV Mainz 05 managing 0 and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 — a VfB Stuttgart win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both VfB Stuttgart and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and FSV Mainz 05 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | FSV Mainz 05 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.19 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.471 / defence 0.887 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.757 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.219. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.471 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FSV Mainz 05's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 54 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 54.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 11%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.49 | Draw 4.63 | FSV Mainz 05 8.99. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (67%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.19 / FSV Mainz 05 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.471 / def 0.887 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.757 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FSV Mainz 05 xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 67% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.47) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.76x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 54 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.63
11%
8.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.01
0.82
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
8.99
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
80.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.82 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 22W 11D 21L from 54 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 22L across 54 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.07 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 14W 6D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 6W 10D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.28 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 games (1.43 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 19D 22L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.78 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won FSV Mainz 05 1-4 VfB Stuttgart on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
1
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 63%, FSV Mainz 05 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VfB Stuttgart and 59% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 63% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 59% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 82% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 3-1 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.19 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.82 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.47 / defence 0.89 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 11%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, FSV Mainz 05 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.43 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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