SC Freiburg 1-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Europa-Park Stadion plays host to SC Freiburg versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Europa-Park Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.60 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–5 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 51% versus VfB Stuttgart 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 53% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.70 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.965 / defence 0.968 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.938 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.256. Data: 53 SC Freiburg games / 53 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 4.17. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 50% | VfB Stuttgart 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Freiburg 1.70 / VfB Stuttgart 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.965 / def 0.968 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.938 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg 1 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 49% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 4W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 0.96x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.94x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.73
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.14
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.14 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 25W 12D 16L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 21W 11D 21L from 53 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 5D 14L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.72 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SC Freiburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 2.00 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 54%, VfB Stuttgart 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (SC Freiburg) and 73% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SC Freiburg's games and 65% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of SC Freiburg's matches and 73% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SC Freiburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 1-3 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.70 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 49% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 24%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a VfB Stuttgart win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 53%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.64 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.