Union Berlin 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.00 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 2 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 44% versus VfL Wolfsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.808 / defence 0.974 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.855 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.239. Data: 54 Union Berlin games / 54 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.51 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.808 / def 0.974 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.855 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
VfL Wolfsburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 1 | VfL Wolfsburg 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.81) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.40
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.03 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 11D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (19W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.48 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 23W 11D 20L in their last 54 games (1.48 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, VfL Wolfsburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 50% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 46% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.48 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.