FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 1W 2D 7L at MEWA ARENA — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.10 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Union Berlin hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with Union Berlin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Berlin have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 60% versus Union Berlin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 57% | Union Berlin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.623 / defence 1.036 | Union Berlin attack 0.613 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.251. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 FSV Mainz 05 games / 53 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 39% | Draw 35% | Union Berlin 25%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Union Berlin 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 50% | Union Berlin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 39% | Draw 35% | Union Berlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.05 / Union Berlin 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.623 / def 1.036 | Union Berlin attack 0.613 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Union Berlin xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 7 February 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 39% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 4W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.61x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
39%
2.56
35%
2.82
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
1.84
0.80
Union Berlin xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.80 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 18D 22L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.49 PPG from 53 outings (23W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 7W 8D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (8W 2D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.30 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 18D 22L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 23W 10D 20L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.12 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 58%, Union Berlin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FSV Mainz 05) and 54% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games; Union Berlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 42% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 54% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin finished level at 1-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.05 xG and Union Berlin 0.80 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.62 / defence 1.04 against Union Berlin attack 0.61 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 39% | Draw 35% | Union Berlin 25%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 57%, Union Berlin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.