FSV Mainz 05 1-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Augsburg are 0.50 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 2 for FC Augsburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 62% and FC Augsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 56% | FC Augsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and FC Augsburg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.643 / defence 1.071 | FC Augsburg attack 0.974 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.643 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 FSV Mainz 05 games / 55 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 29% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | FC Augsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: FSV Mainz 05 50% | FC Augsburg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 29% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.07 / FC Augsburg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.643 / def 1.071 | FC Augsburg attack 0.974 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC Augsburg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 29% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 3W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.64) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.97x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
29%
3.44
32%
3.08
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.34
1.27
FC Augsburg xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.27 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 13W 19D 23L from 55 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 26L across 55 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.04 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 7W 9D 11L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 5W 6D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 19D 23L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 15D 26L in their last 55 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or FC Augsburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 59%, FC Augsburg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FSV Mainz 05) and 63% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Augsburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 63% of FC Augsburg's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 1-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and FC Augsburg 1.27 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.64 / defence 1.07 against FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 29% | Draw 32% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 56%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.05 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.