FC Augsburg 2-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 41%, yet in-form RB Leipzig provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, RB Leipzig have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for FC Augsburg.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with RB Leipzig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and RB Leipzig 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | RB Leipzig 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.83 xG and RB Leipzig 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.954 / defence 1.111 | RB Leipzig attack 1.186 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.239. Data: 54 FC Augsburg games / 54 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | RB Leipzig 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 90% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Augsburg 1.83 / RB Leipzig 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.954 / def 1.111 | RB Leipzig attack 1.186 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.63
RB Leipzig xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
FC Augsburg 2 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 41% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 2 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
41%
2.41
25%
3.99
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.46
1.63
RB Leipzig xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.63 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 14D 26L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 31W 9D 14L from 54 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 11W 5D 10L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 14D 26L in their last 54 games (1.04 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 31W 9D 14L in their last 54 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.35 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 65%, RB Leipzig 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 62% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Augsburg's games and 58% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 62% of RB Leipzig's.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig finished level at 2-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.83 xG and RB Leipzig 1.63 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against RB Leipzig attack 1.19 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 41% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, RB Leipzig 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.