SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfB Stuttgart travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfB Stuttgart are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 1–3 VfB Stuttgart — a VfB Stuttgart win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 51% versus VfB Stuttgart 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 53% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.10 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.651 / defence 1.395 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.103 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.651 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.395 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VfB Stuttgart's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 21 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 55.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 20% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 54%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 4.96 | Draw 3.82 | VfB Stuttgart 1.86. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 20% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.10 / VfB Stuttgart 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.651 / def 1.395 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.103 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 21 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
20%
4.96
26%
3.82
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.87
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.96
20%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
32.23
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.87 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 13D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.45 PPG from 55 outings (23W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 11W 8D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.76 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 65%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 23W 11D 21L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.52 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, VfB Stuttgart 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 74% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 74% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 74% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.10 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.87 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.65 / defence 1.40 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 20% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 54%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 53%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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