VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln.

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Full Analysis

MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

VfB Stuttgart's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

1. FC Köln's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with 1. FC Köln managing 1 and 2 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Köln — a VfB Stuttgart win.

The head-to-head data gives VfB Stuttgart an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and 1. FC Köln 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 71% | 1. FC Köln 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: VfB Stuttgart surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while 1. FC Köln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.839 / defence 0.917 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.792 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.393. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 55 games and 1. FC Köln's last 21.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.04 | Draw 3.50 | 1. FC Köln 4.45. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 60% (last 10 away games).

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