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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face FSV Mainz 05.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Borussia Dortmund welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Borussia Dortmund's home record at Signal Iduna Park: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Borussia Dortmund have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while FSV Mainz 05 have managed just 2 wins.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 62% versus FSV Mainz 05 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 64% | FSV Mainz 05 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.26 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.287 / defence 0.865 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.969 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.427. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Borussia Dortmund games / 55 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | FSV Mainz 05 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 40% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.

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