🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.80 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.831 / defence 1.052 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.393. Data: 55 FC Augsburg games / 55 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights