FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.80 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | 1. FC Heidenheim 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.831 / defence 1.052 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.393. Data: 55 FC Augsburg games / 55 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Augsburg 1.66 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.831 / def 1.052 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (5 meetings): FC Augsburg 3W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.91x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.69
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.33
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
6%
17.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 14D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 0.73 PPG from 55 outings (10W 10D 35L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (6W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 0.98 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 10D 35L in their last 55 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.37 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 4-0 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 52%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Augsburg) and 63% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Augsburg's games and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Augsburg's matches and 63% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.66 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Heidenheim 29%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.