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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayer Leverkusen face FC St. Pauli.

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Analysis

FC St. Pauli make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

Bayer Leverkusen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at BayArena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BayArena.

FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Bayer Leverkusen. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bayer Leverkusen lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 67% versus FC St. Pauli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | FC St. Pauli 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.057 / defence 0.892 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Data: 54 Bayer Leverkusen games / 55 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 5.26. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.

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