RB Leipzig 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
RB Leipzig (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Leipzig have posted 7W 0D 3L at Red Bull Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for RB Leipzig, 1.10 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RB Leipzig have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Wolfsburg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours RB Leipzig, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against VfL Wolfsburg — a 0D 3W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with RB Leipzig winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RB Leipzig and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
RB Leipzig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 53% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 58% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.42 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.124 / defence 1.063 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.859 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.380. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 RB Leipzig games / 55 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 62% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 18%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | VfL Wolfsburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 62% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG RB Leipzig 2.42 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.124 / def 1.063 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.859 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
RB Leipzig 2 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 62% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (9 meetings): RB Leipzig 6W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Leipzig's attack rating (1.12) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.86x) against RB Leipzig's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.93
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.68
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
2%
63.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.26 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Leipzig's recent record stands at 25W 15D 15L from 55 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 25L across 55 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Wolfsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Leipzig have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record stands at 11W 4D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.55 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 71%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 25W 15D 15L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 1.89 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.37 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 1-5 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Leipzig have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
1
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for RB Leipzig and 59% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of RB Leipzig's games and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of RB Leipzig's matches and 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 2-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.42 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 62% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 18%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.