1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 7W 0D 3L at PreZero Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
1899 Hoffenheim are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour SC Freiburg, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 62% | SC Freiburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.65 xG and SC Freiburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.397 / defence 0.866 | SC Freiburg attack 0.854 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 1899 Hoffenheim games / 55 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | SC Freiburg 12%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | SC Freiburg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but 1899 Hoffenheim carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | SC Freiburg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.65 / SC Freiburg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.397 / def 0.866 | SC Freiburg attack 0.854 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SC Freiburg xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 71% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (9 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 3 | SC Freiburg 5W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.40) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
71%
1.42
18%
5.62
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.70
1.05
SC Freiburg xG
1.42
71%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
7%
14.18
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
1%
121.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.05 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 14D 21L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 24W 13D 18L from 55 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.35 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.41 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 70%, SC Freiburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 56% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 37%; SC Freiburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 44% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 56% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1899 Hoffenheim run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat SC Freiburg 3-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.65 xG and SC Freiburg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against SC Freiburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 71% | Draw 18% | SC Freiburg 12%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 62%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.