🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hamburger SV welcome Union Berlin to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Union Berlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union Berlin away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.00 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 61% versus Union Berlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 67% | Union Berlin 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and Union Berlin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.867 / defence 0.873 | Union Berlin attack 0.821 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Data: 20 Hamburger SV games / 55 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 25%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 60% | Union Berlin 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights