Hamburger SV 3-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Hamburger SV welcome Union Berlin to Volksparkstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.00 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 61% versus Union Berlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 67% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and Union Berlin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.867 / defence 0.873 | Union Berlin attack 0.821 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Data: 20 Hamburger SV games / 55 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 25%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 60% | Union Berlin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Hamburger SV 1.40 / Union Berlin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.867 / def 0.873 | Union Berlin attack 0.821 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Union Berlin xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin?
Hamburger SV 3 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin part of?
Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 44% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hamburger SV and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Union Berlin in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.87) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.28
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.42
1.01
Union Berlin xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.01 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 18D 15L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 16W 17D 21L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (12W 10D 4L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.13 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Union Berlin away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.77 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Union Berlin?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, Union Berlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Hamburger SV 3-2 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Union Berlin?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 65%, Union Berlin 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Hamburger SV) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 42% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hamburger SV's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do Hamburger SV and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Union Berlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Union Berlin 3-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.40 xG and Union Berlin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 44% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 25%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 67%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.50 PPG, Union Berlin 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.