Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Werder Bremen have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Union Berlin against 0.60 for Werder Bremen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 5 wins for Union Berlin, 3 for Werder Bremen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Union Berlin 0–1 Werder Bremen — a Werder Bremen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 53% versus Werder Bremen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Werder Bremen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.47 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / defence 0.948 | Werder Bremen attack 0.724 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.378. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 58 games and Werder Bremen's last 58.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.06 | Draw 3.61 | Werder Bremen 4.22. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 60% (last 10 home games) | Werder Bremen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Union Berlin 1.47 / Werder Bremen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / def 0.948 | Werder Bremen attack 0.724 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Werder Bremen xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin 1 - 4 Werder Bremen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen part of?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 49% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.72x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 58 games and Werder Bremen's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.61
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.41
0.94
Werder Bremen xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.94 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 17W 18D 23L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 19W 16D 23L from 58 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.26 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 29 home games (9W 12D 8L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.36 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Werder Bremen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 17W 18D 23L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Werder Bremen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.34 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen, the earliest from January 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Werder Bremen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 62%, Werder Bremen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Union Berlin and 69% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 28% of games; Werder Bremen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Union Berlin's games and 52% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Union Berlin's matches and 69% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Union Berlin and Werder Bremen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 79% of Werder Bremen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 1-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.47 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Werder Bremen attack 0.72 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Werder Bremen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.19 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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