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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form

SC Freiburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Europa-Park-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Union Berlin have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union Berlin away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Union Berlin (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Berlin, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Union Berlin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus Union Berlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Union Berlin 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.147 / defence 0.982 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.374. Data: 59 SC Freiburg games / 59 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 57% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Union Berlin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.

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