SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet at Europa-Park-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park-Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SC Freiburg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Union Berlin (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Berlin, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Union Berlin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus Union Berlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.147 / defence 0.982 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.374. Data: 59 SC Freiburg games / 59 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 57% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Union Berlin 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but SC Freiburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Europa-Park-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 57% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Freiburg 2.01 / Union Berlin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.147 / def 0.982 | Union Berlin attack 0.842 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Union Berlin xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg 0 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 57% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Freiburg and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Record (9 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 4 | Union Berlin 4W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.15) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.84x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.33
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.15
1.14
Union Berlin xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
37.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.14 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 14D 20L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (17W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.17 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 25W 14D 20L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
4
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Union Berlin have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 76%, Union Berlin 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SC Freiburg and 48% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of SC Freiburg's games and 45% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SC Freiburg's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Freiburg and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 0-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 57% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.51 PPG, Union Berlin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.