Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Bayer Leverkusen hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
It is worth noting that Bayer Leverkusen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / defence 1.053 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.123 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. Data: 56 Union Berlin games / 55 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.22. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Union Berlin 1.26 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / def 1.053 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.123 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 28% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 4 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.12x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.66
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.90
1.64
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.49
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.64 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 17D 22L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 31W 15D 9L from 55 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (7W 12D 8L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 14W 10D 3L from 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 15D 9L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.22 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
4
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Union Berlin, 74% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Union Berlin and 63% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Union Berlin's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.