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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayer Leverkusen.

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Full Analysis

Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Union Berlin (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Bayer Leverkusen hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.

It is worth noting that Bayer Leverkusen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Union Berlin — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 54% and Bayer Leverkusen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.852 / defence 1.053 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.123 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. Data: 56 Union Berlin games / 55 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 28% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.22. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.

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