FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.

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Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Köln edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended FC Augsburg 1–1 1. FC Köln — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus 1. FC Köln 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | 1. FC Köln 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while 1. FC Köln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.64 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.799 / defence 0.961 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.789 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.401. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.64. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 57 games and 1. FC Köln's last 23.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.02 | Draw 3.72 | 1. FC Köln 4.24. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 70% (last 10 away games).

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