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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 2D 4L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Freiburg's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Eintracht Frankfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 4 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

SC Freiburg trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 67% | SC Freiburg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.042 / defence 1.115 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.366. Data: 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 57 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | SC Freiburg 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the H2H record, yet SC Freiburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.

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