Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Borussia Mönchengladbach managing 0 and 4 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 6–4 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 69% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.979 / defence 1.210 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.886 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output up. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 55 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 55.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.75 | Draw 3.67 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.75. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Eintracht Frankfurt 36% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, with the draw at 27%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.979 / def 1.210 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.886 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 36% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.98x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.89x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 55 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.67
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.03
1.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.52 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 16D 15L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 18W 13D 24L from 55 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.22 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 6D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 6D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.45 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.78 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 56% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.52 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 66%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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