Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 39%, yet in-form Union Berlin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to Borussia-Park in Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union Berlin are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Union Berlin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union Berlin trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% versus Union Berlin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.835 / defence 1.101 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.391. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 57 games and Union Berlin's last 57.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 34%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.57 | Draw 3.69 | Union Berlin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union Berlin (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 / Union Berlin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.835 / def 1.101 | Union Berlin attack 0.910 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Union Berlin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 39% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.83x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 57 games and Union Berlin's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.69
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.90
1.39
Union Berlin xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.39 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 18W 13D 26L from 57 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 22L across 57 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.18 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 9W 7D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 17W 18D 22L in their last 57 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.21 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Union Berlin have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, Union Berlin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 32% of games; Union Berlin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 46% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 71% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Union Berlin attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | Union Berlin 34%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 PPG, Union Berlin 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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