Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Borussia Dortmund face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Dortmund: 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for FC Augsburg, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–0 FC Augsburg — a Borussia Dortmund win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 63% versus FC Augsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 66% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.46 xG and FC Augsburg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.331 / defence 0.880 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.396. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.331 — their 2.46 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 59 games and FC Augsburg's last 59.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.47 | Draw 5.55 | FC Augsburg 7.05. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.46 / 1.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.46 / FC Augsburg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.331 / def 0.880 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC Augsburg xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.33) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Dortmund's last 59 games and FC Augsburg's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.55
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.53
1.06
FC Augsburg xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
9%
11.76
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
1%
82.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.06 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 13D 13L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.25 PPG from 59 outings (20W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 20W 5D 4L across their last 29 home games, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 13D 13L in their last 59 games (1.90 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 20W 14D 25L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.24 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 5-1 FC Augsburg.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 55%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Borussia Dortmund and 62% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 62% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 72% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.46 xG and FC Augsburg 1.06 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 18% | FC Augsburg 14%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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