Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Signal Iduna Park plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus Hamburger SV in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Hamburger SV's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 62% and Hamburger SV 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | Hamburger SV 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.14 xG and Hamburger SV 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.322 / defence 0.833 | Hamburger SV attack 0.757 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.349. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Borussia Dortmund games / 26 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Hamburger SV 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | Hamburger SV 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.14 / Hamburger SV 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.322 / def 0.833 | Hamburger SV attack 0.757 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hamburger SV xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 67% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.76x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.17
14%
7.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.99
0.85
Hamburger SV xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
7.32
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
62.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.85 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.48 PPG from 60 outings (23W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 20W 5D 4L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.78 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 23W 20D 17L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Hamburger SV away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.24 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV?
From 3 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 55%, Hamburger SV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Borussia Dortmund and 66% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 59% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 66% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Hamburger SV 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 3-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.14 xG and Hamburger SV 0.85 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Hamburger SV attack 0.76 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 14%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, Hamburger SV 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.