Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 64% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 meet at BayArena in Bundesliga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bayer Leverkusen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with FSV Mainz 05 managing 2 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Bayer Leverkusen 4–3 FSV Mainz 05 — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 64% versus FSV Mainz 05 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | FSV Mainz 05 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bayer Leverkusen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while FSV Mainz 05 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FSV Mainz 05 surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Bayer Leverkusen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.25 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.146 / defence 0.836 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.901 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.391. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 56 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 57.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 16%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.57 | Draw 4.80 | FSV Mainz 05 6.45. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 40% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.25 / FSV Mainz 05 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.146 / def 0.836 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.901 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FSV Mainz 05 xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 FAQs
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 64% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against FSV Mainz 05's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.90x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 56 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.80
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.30
1.05
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
61.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.05 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 56 games, going 31W 15D 10L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.30 PPG from 56 outings (19W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen (Home) vs FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 Form FAQs
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 15D 10L in their last 56 games (1.93 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.00 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 57%, FSV Mainz 05 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Bayer Leverkusen and 75% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 57% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 75% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 89% of FSV Mainz 05's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 24, as Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.25 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.05 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 16%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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