Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Bayer Leverkusen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC St. Pauli away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Bayer Leverkusen. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FC St. Pauli — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 67% versus FC St. Pauli 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | FC St. Pauli 41%). Note also that FC St. Pauli surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Bayer Leverkusen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.057 / defence 0.892 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.415. FC St. Pauli's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 54 games and FC St. Pauli's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.85 | Draw 3.78 | FC St. Pauli 5.14. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 / FC St. Pauli 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.057 / def 0.892 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.786 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen 4 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.79x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Bayer Leverkusen's last 54 games and FC St. Pauli's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.78
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.76
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
30.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.99 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 54 games, going 30W 15D 9L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.91 PPG from 54 outings (12W 13D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 16W 5D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 30W 15D 9L in their last 54 games (1.94 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.96 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 59%, FC St. Pauli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 44% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 48% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 78% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 4-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.77 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 54% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FC St. Pauli 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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