Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Dortmund — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 9 encounters against Union Berlin's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 54% versus Borussia Dortmund 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.54 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.016 / defence 0.992 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.145 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.460. Data: 52 Union Berlin games / 52 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Union Berlin 1.54 / Borussia Dortmund 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.016 / def 0.992 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.145 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 0 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (9 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.02x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.74
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.20
1.66
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.66 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 16W 17D 19L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 28W 12D 12L from 52 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 7D 9L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.04 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.35 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 65%, Borussia Dortmund at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Union Berlin) and 58% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Union Berlin's games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Union Berlin's matches and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.54 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.66 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 39%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.