1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Köln face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Köln have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Köln at 0.80 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1. FC Köln 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 62% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.62 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.875 / defence 1.148 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.821 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.348. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 26 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 60.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.22 | Draw 3.97 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.37. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Köln's last 10 home games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 80% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG 1. FC Köln 1.62 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.875 / def 1.148 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.821 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach FAQs
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln 3 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 45% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.88) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Köln's last 26 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.97
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.89
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.27 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 14D 22L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.43 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 7D 10L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 9W 6D 15L from their last 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Köln (Home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Köln
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.53 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from February 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 1. FC Köln 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Köln have won 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: 1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 70%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for 1. FC Köln and 60% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Köln's games and 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.62 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 45% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.43 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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