🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 3W 5D 2L at Mewa Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Eintracht Frankfurt, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FSV Mainz 05.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.

It is worth noting that Eintracht Frankfurt have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 52% | Eintracht Frankfurt 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.876 / defence 0.915 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.118 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.358. Data: 60 FSV Mainz 05 games / 60 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.23. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Eintracht Frankfurt lead the H2H ledger, but FSV Mainz 05 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights