1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bayer Leverkusen, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–6 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus Bayer Leverkusen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.829 / defence 1.520 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.112 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.348. Data: 60 1. FC Heidenheim games / 60 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.829 / def 1.520 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.112 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 20% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.83) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.11x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.28.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
20%
5.09
20%
4.98
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.53
2.28
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.09
20%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
10%
9.76
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
2%
49.65
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.28 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 11D 39L from 60 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 32W 18D 10L across 60 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 4W 7D 19L from 30 games — 0.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 15W 11D 4L across 30 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 11D 39L in their last 60 games (0.68 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 18D 10L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.63 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 6-0 on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 60% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.52 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.