FC St. Pauli 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.10 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 40% versus SC Freiburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 40% | SC Freiburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.725 / defence 0.858 | SC Freiburg attack 0.769 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.355. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 FC St. Pauli games / 60 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | SC Freiburg 4.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 50% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.40 / SC Freiburg 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.725 / def 0.858 | SC Freiburg attack 0.769 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SC Freiburg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 49% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.72x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.77x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.63
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
SC Freiburg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.89 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 14D 32L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.48 PPG from 60 outings (25W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 7W 9D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 14D 21L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.03 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC St. Pauli won 0-3 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
3
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 38%, SC Freiburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FC St. Pauli) and 55% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 34%; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 55% of games; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 41% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 55% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against SC Freiburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 40%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.