Le Havre 1-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 5W 1D 0L from 6 Ligue 2 matches — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.17 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 0D 0L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 1.17 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.67 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Le Havre 33% | Toulouse 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.84 xG and Toulouse 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.026 / defence 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.308 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 0.754 / away 1.099. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Le Havre games / 6 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 18% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 54%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 1.85. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 67% | Toulouse 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 18% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Le Havre 0.84 / Toulouse 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.026 / def 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.308 / def 1.089 | league avg home 0.754 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Toulouse xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 18% chance of winning, Toulouse a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (1.03) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
18%
5.56
28%
3.63
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.46
1.62
Toulouse xG
5.56
18%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
28.16
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.62 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse's form line: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games, 2.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.17 scored and 0.67 conceded. Toulouse's attacking output running into Le Havre's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Toulouse in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.33 PPG; Toulouse away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Toulouse in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 67%, Toulouse 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Le Havre and 67% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse in 67%; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Le Havre's recent matches and 33% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Le Havre's matches and 67% of Toulouse's.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Toulouse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Toulouse finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.84 xG and Toulouse 1.62 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.31 / defence 1.09, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 18% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 54%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.