Toulouse 1-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Toulouse take on Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Valenciennes travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 1D 0L from 5 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have recorded 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Toulouse have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Valenciennes trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 40% versus Valenciennes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Valenciennes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 0.91 xG and Valenciennes 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.103 / defence 1.114 | Valenciennes attack 0.776 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 0.755 / away 1.209. Data: 5 Toulouse games / 5 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 39% | Valenciennes 34%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Valenciennes 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Valenciennes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 39% | Valenciennes 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Toulouse 0.91 / Valenciennes 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.103 / def 1.114 | Valenciennes attack 0.776 / def 1.091 | league avg home 0.755 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Valenciennes xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Valenciennes kick off?
Toulouse vs Valenciennes kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Valenciennes?
Toulouse 1 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Toulouse vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Valenciennes part of?
Toulouse vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 27% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Toulouse and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Valenciennes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.74
39%
2.55
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Toulouse xG
Total xG
1.96
1.05
Valenciennes xG
3.74
27%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.05 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.60 PPG clear of Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Valenciennes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Toulouse or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Valenciennes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Valenciennes?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Valenciennes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Valenciennes 1-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Valenciennes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Valenciennes tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 40%, Valenciennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Toulouse) and 40% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Valenciennes in 40%; Valenciennes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Toulouse's recent matches and 40% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Toulouse's recent games and 40% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Valenciennes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Valenciennes 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 0.91 xG and Valenciennes 1.05 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valenciennes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Valenciennes attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 27% | Draw 39% | Valenciennes 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 60%, Valenciennes 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valenciennes's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.