Paris FC 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Paris FC take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Guingamp meet at Stade Sébastien-Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 4W 1D 0L across 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 2D 0L from 3 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.17 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Paris FC. A 1.43 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.60 vs 1.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris FC 60% and Guingamp 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 60% | Guingamp 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 0.78 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.078 | Guingamp attack 0.765 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 0.731 / away 1.139. Data: 5 Paris FC games / 6 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 25% | Draw 40% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 4.00 | Draw 2.50 | Guingamp 2.94. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | Guingamp 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Sébastien-Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 25% | Draw 40% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Paris FC 0.78 / Guingamp 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.083 / def 1.078 | Guingamp attack 0.765 / def 0.991 | league avg home 0.731 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Guingamp xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Guingamp kick off?
Paris FC vs Guingamp kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade Sébastien-Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Paris FC 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Paris FC vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Sébastien-Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Guingamp part of?
Paris FC vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 25% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Paris FC and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-4D-1L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.77x) against Paris FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.93
40%
2.47
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Paris FC xG
Total xG
1.72
0.94
Guingamp xG
3.93
25%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 16.8 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.94 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Guingamp — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Paris FC's scoring rate against Guingamp's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Guingamp in 60%.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Paris FC or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Guingamp in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 60%, Guingamp 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Paris FC) and 20% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Guingamp in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Paris FC's games and 60% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Paris FC's recent games and 20% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Guingamp tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Paris FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Paris FC 0-1 at Stade Sébastien-Charléty, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 0.78 xG and Guingamp 0.94 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Guingamp attack 0.77 / defence 0.99, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 25% | Draw 40% | Guingamp 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 60%, Guingamp 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Guingamp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris FC managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.