Amiens 0-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 0W 1D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez (all games): 2W 3D 1L across 6 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rodez are 0.67 PPG clear of Amiens in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.83). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Amiens have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Rodez in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Rodez 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 50% | Rodez 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.93 xG and Rodez 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.880 / defence 1.232 | Rodez attack 0.985 / defence 1.473. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.473 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Amiens games / 6 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 23% | Draw 33% | Rodez 45%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Rodez 2.22. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 67% | Rodez 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 23% | Draw 33% | Rodez 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Amiens 0.93 / Rodez 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.880 / def 1.232 | Rodez attack 0.985 / def 1.473 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Rodez kick off?
Amiens vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Amiens 0 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Amiens vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Rodez part of?
Amiens vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 23% chance of winning, Rodez a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Amiens and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Rodez in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Rodez (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.88x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.98x) against Amiens's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
23%
4.42
33%
3.07
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.31
1.39
Rodez xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
17.64
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Amiens and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Amiens and 1.39 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Amiens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Rodez in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Rodez have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 0.33 PPG; Rodez away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Amiens or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rodez in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Amiens
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Amiens, 67% for Rodez — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Amiens and 67% for Rodez. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 33% of games; Rodez in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Amiens's games and 67% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amiens vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Amiens's matches and 67% of Rodez's.
Do Amiens and Rodez tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Amiens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.93 xG and Rodez 1.39 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.23 against Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 1.47, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 23% | Draw 33% | Rodez 45%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, Rodez 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.