Niort 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade René Gaillard to face Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Niort (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Niort. A 0.60 PPG lead over Amiens (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 40% versus Amiens 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 40% | Amiens 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.80 xG and Amiens 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.852 / defence 1.057 | Amiens attack 0.943 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Niort games / 5 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 22% | Draw 37% | Amiens 41%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Amiens 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Niort (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Niort 40% | Amiens 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 22% | Draw 37% | Amiens 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Niort 0.80 / Amiens 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.852 / def 1.057 | Amiens attack 0.943 / def 1.265 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Amiens (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Amiens kick off?
Niort vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Amiens?
Niort 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Niort vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Amiens part of?
Niort vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 22% chance of winning, Amiens a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Niort and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Amiens in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Niort's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.94x) against Niort's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
22%
4.60
37%
2.67
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Niort xG
Total xG
1.96
1.16
Amiens xG
4.60
22%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Niort and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Niort and 1.16 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Niort's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Niort by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Niort are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens in 60%.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Amiens in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Amiens in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Amiens have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Niort or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Amiens in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Amiens have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Niort 1-3 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 40%, Amiens 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Niort) and 60% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Amiens in 40%; Niort have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Niort's recent matches and 60% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Niort's recent games and 60% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Amiens tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Amiens in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Niort's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.80 xG and Amiens 1.16 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 22% | Draw 37% | Amiens 41%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 40%, Amiens 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Niort managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.