Valenciennes 1-4 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Valenciennes take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade du Hainaut to face Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: D D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.25 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.25 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Valenciennes have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Rodez in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valenciennes 25% | Rodez 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valenciennes 25% | Rodez 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.79 xG and Rodez 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.746 / defence 1.212 | Rodez attack 0.663 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Valenciennes's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Valenciennes games / 4 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 24% | Draw 40% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.17 | Draw 2.50 | Rodez 2.78. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 25% | Rodez 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 24% | Draw 40% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 39% | xG Valenciennes 0.79 / Rodez 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.746 / def 1.212 | Rodez attack 0.663 / def 1.494 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Rodez xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Rodez kick off?
Valenciennes vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Valenciennes 1 - 4 Rodez.
Where is Valenciennes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Rodez part of?
Valenciennes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 24% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Valenciennes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Rodez in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.75) and Rodez's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.66x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.19
40%
2.47
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
1.80
1.01
Rodez xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.01 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valenciennes come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.25 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valenciennes have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Rodez in 25%.
Defensively: Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Rodez in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Rodez have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Valenciennes or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rodez in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 1-4 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
3
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Rodez have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Valenciennes 0-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Valenciennes) and 25% (Rodez) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Valenciennes and 25% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rodez in 50%; Valenciennes have failed to score in 50% of games; Rodez in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 25% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valenciennes's recent games and 25% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Rodez tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Rodez in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Valenciennes 1-4 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.79 xG and Rodez 1.01 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.75 / defence 1.21 against Rodez attack 0.66 / defence 1.49, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 24% | Draw 40% | Rodez 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 25%, Rodez 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Valenciennes shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.