Rodez 2-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Rodez take on Dunkerque.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 2D 1L from 5 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 0W 1D 4L from 5 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 40% versus Dunkerque 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 40% | Dunkerque 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.86 xG and Dunkerque 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.880 / defence 0.897 | Dunkerque attack 0.701 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Rodez games / 5 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 42% | Dunkerque 25%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 2.38 | Dunkerque 4.00. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 40% | Dunkerque 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 42% | Dunkerque 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Rodez 0.86 / Dunkerque 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.880 / def 0.897 | Dunkerque attack 0.701 / def 1.315 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Dunkerque xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dunkerque kick off?
Rodez vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Rodez 2 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Rodez vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dunkerque part of?
Rodez vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 25% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Rodez and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.88x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
42%
2.37
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.59
0.73
Dunkerque xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.37
42%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Rodez and 0.73 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque in 60%.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Rodez or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 40%, Dunkerque 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rodez) and 40% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 40% of games; Dunkerque in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rodez's recent matches and 60% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rodez's recent games and 40% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Dunkerque finished level at 2-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.86 xG and Dunkerque 0.73 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Dunkerque attack 0.70 / defence 1.31, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 32% | Draw 42% | Dunkerque 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 40%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rodez scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.