Dijon 2-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Dijon welcome Toulouse to Stade Gaston-Gérard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — a 0.25 PPG return. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 2.50 PPG return is 2.25 points per game ahead of Dijon's 0.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 100% and Toulouse 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 75% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.65 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.988 / defence 1.319 | Toulouse attack 1.113 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 0.691 / away 1.210. Data: 4 Dijon games / 4 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 10% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 61%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 10.00 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (61%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dijon 100% | Toulouse 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 10% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Dijon 0.65 / Toulouse 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.988 / def 1.319 | Toulouse attack 1.113 / def 0.953 | league avg home 0.691 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Toulouse xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Toulouse kick off?
Dijon vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Toulouse?
Dijon 2 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Dijon vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Toulouse part of?
Dijon vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 10% chance of winning, Toulouse a 61% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dijon and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Toulouse in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.99) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
10%
9.95
29%
3.51
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.42
1.77
Toulouse xG
9.95
10%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
2%
58.71
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Dijon and 1.77 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.25 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Toulouse in 25%.
Defensively: Toulouse in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Dijon or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Toulouse in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dijon
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Toulouse 4-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 100%, Toulouse 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 50% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dijon's games and 25% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 50% of Toulouse's.
Do Dijon and Toulouse tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Dijon 2-4 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 0.65 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Toulouse outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.99 / defence 1.32 against Toulouse attack 1.11 / defence 0.95, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 10% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 61%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 75%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Dijon scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.