Auxerre 2-2 Nimes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nimes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nimes have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 0.60 PPG lead over Nimes (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nimes half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 40% versus Nimes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Nimes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.34 xG and Nimes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.268 / defence 0.895 | Nimes attack 0.921 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.067. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Auxerre games / 10 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 32% | Nimes 22%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Nimes 4.55. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 20% | Nimes 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 32% | Nimes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Auxerre 1.34 / Nimes 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.268 / def 0.895 | Nimes attack 0.921 / def 1.217 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Nimes xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nimes kick off?
Auxerre vs Nimes kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Nimes?
Auxerre 2 - 2 Nimes.
Where is Auxerre vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nimes part of?
Auxerre vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, Nimes a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Auxerre and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Nimes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Nimes (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Nimes's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (0.92x) against Auxerre's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.08
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.22
0.88
Nimes xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.88 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 4D 1L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nimes sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nimes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nimes have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Nimes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nimes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Nimes have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nimes away?
Auxerre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.00 PPG; Nimes away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Nimes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
0
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nimes?
From 2 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Nimes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Nimes 1-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nimes?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Auxerre) and 40% (Nimes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Auxerre) and 40% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Nimes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Auxerre's recent matches and 40% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Auxerre's recent games and 40% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nimes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nimes in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre and Nimes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Nimes finished level at 2-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.34 xG and Nimes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nimes outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 45% | Draw 32% | Nimes 22%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 50%, Nimes 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.