Rodez 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Rodez, 1.33 for Le Havre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rodez 33% | Le Havre 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 33% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.78 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.988 / defence 0.992 | Le Havre attack 0.933 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.328. Data: 3 Rodez games / 3 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 20% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 43%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 5.00 | Draw 2.70 | Le Havre 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 33% | Le Havre 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 20% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Rodez 0.78 / Le Havre 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.988 / def 0.992 | Le Havre attack 0.933 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Le Havre kick off?
Rodez vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Le Havre?
Rodez 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Rodez vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Le Havre part of?
Rodez vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 20% chance of winning, Le Havre a 43% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rodez and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Le Havre in?
Rodez (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rodez's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.93x) against Rodez's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
20%
5.10
37%
2.67
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.00
1.23
Le Havre xG
5.10
20%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Rodez and 1.23 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rodez against 1.33 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Rodez or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Le Havre in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Rodez) and 33% (Le Havre) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Rodez and 33% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Le Havre in 67%; Rodez have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rodez's recent matches and 33% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rodez's recent games and 33% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 4, as Rodez and Le Havre drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.78 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 20% | Draw 37% | Le Havre 43%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 33%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.33 PPG, Le Havre 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.