Niort 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Niort take on Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Niort and Grenoble meet at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Niort have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: D L W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Niort's favour (1.33 vs 0.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Niort 33% | Grenoble 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 33% | Grenoble 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.93 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.834 / defence 1.114 | Grenoble attack 0.709 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.328. Grenoble bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Niort games / 3 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 27% | Draw 39% | Grenoble 34%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | Grenoble 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 33% | Grenoble 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 27% | Draw 39% | Grenoble 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Niort 0.93 / Grenoble 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.834 / def 1.114 | Grenoble attack 0.709 / def 1.463 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Grenoble xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Grenoble kick off?
Niort vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Grenoble?
Niort 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Niort vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Grenoble part of?
Niort vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 27% chance of winning, Grenoble a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Niort and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Grenoble in?
Niort (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-L-W. Grenoble (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.83) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.71x) against Niort's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.67
39%
2.56
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Niort xG
Total xG
1.98
1.05
Grenoble xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.5 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Niort and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Niort and 1.05 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 0%.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Niort or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grenoble in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grenoble have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grenoble won 0-3 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
0
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Grenoble have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Grenoble 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Niort) and 0% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Niort) and 67% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Grenoble in 33%; Niort have failed to score in 67% of games; Grenoble in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Niort's recent matches and 0% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Niort's recent games and 67% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Grenoble tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Niort defy the odds to beat Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.93 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Grenoble attack 0.71 / defence 1.46, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 27% | Draw 39% | Grenoble 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 33%, Grenoble 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Grenoble's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Grenoble conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.