Guingamp 0-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Guingamp take on Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 0W 3D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Amiens trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 33% and Amiens 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 0% | Amiens 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.07 xG and Amiens 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.988 / defence 1.114 | Amiens attack 0.814 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.328. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Guingamp games / 3 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 29% | Draw 36% | Amiens 35%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Amiens 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 33% | Amiens 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 29% | Draw 36% | Amiens 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.07 / Amiens 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.988 / def 1.114 | Amiens attack 0.814 / def 1.430 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Amiens xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 0 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 29% chance of winning, Amiens a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in?
Guingamp (all comps): 0W-3D-0L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-D-D. Amiens (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
36%
2.75
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.28
1.21
Amiens xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.21 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 3D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Amiens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens in 100%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Amiens have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Amiens in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Amiens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 33%, Amiens at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Guingamp) and 100% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Guingamp's games and 100% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Guingamp's recent games and 100% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Amiens in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Guingamp 0-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.07 xG and Amiens 1.21 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 29% | Draw 36% | Amiens 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 0%, Amiens 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Amiens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.