Le Havre 2-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Niort are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.75 vs 1.25). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Niort in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Le Havre 25% | Niort 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 25% | Niort 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.71 xG and Niort 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.907 / defence 1.090 | Niort attack 0.801 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Data: 4 Le Havre games / 4 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 20% | Draw 40% | Niort 41%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.00 | Draw 2.50 | Niort 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Niort as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 40% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 25% | Niort 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 20% | Draw 40% | Niort 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Le Havre 0.71 / Niort 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.907 / def 1.090 | Niort attack 0.801 / def 1.097 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Niort (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Niort xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Niort kick off?
Le Havre vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Le Havre 2 - 1 Niort.
Where is Le Havre vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Niort part of?
Le Havre vs Niort is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 20% chance of winning, Niort a 41% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Le Havre and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Niort in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-D. Niort (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Niort's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.80x) against Le Havre's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
20%
5.08
40%
2.53
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.81
1.10
Niort xG
5.08
20%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
7%
15.20
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 18.0 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.10 for Niort, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — D-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Niort are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.75 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Niort in 25%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games; Niort in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Niort in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Niort have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Le Havre or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Niort in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Le Havre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Niort?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Niort see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Le Havre) and 25% (Niort) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Le Havre and 25% for Niort.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Niort in 50%; Le Havre have failed to score in 50% of games; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Le Havre's recent matches and 25% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Le Havre's recent games and 25% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Niort 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Niort 2-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.71 xG and Niort 1.10 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Niort attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 20% | Draw 40% | Niort 41%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 25%, Niort 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Niort shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.