Nimes 0-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Nimes take on PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nimes host PAU at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nimes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.33 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Nimes in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 67% versus PAU 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 67% | PAU 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.01 xG and PAU 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.137 / defence 1.114 | PAU attack 0.692 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.759 / away 1.328. Data: 3 Nimes games / 3 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 39% | PAU 31%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | PAU 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 67% | PAU 33%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 39% | PAU 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 45% | xG Nimes 1.01 / PAU 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.137 / def 1.114 | PAU attack 0.692 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.759 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAU xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs PAU kick off?
Nimes vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs PAU?
Nimes 0 - 0 PAU.
Where is Nimes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs PAU part of?
Nimes vs PAU is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 30% chance of winning, PAU a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nimes and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and PAU in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W. PAU (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nimes's attack rating (1.14) and PAU's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
39%
2.59
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.03
1.02
PAU xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Nimes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nimes and 1.02 for PAU, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Nimes have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nimes are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAU.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Nimes's scoring rate against PAU's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Nimes have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and PAU in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Nimes or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2022, when Nimes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nimes's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Nimes 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and PAU?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 67%, PAU 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Nimes) and 33% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAU in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nimes's recent matches and 33% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nimes's recent games and 33% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and PAU tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nimes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes and PAU finished level at 0-0 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.01 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nimes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against PAU attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 30% | Draw 39% | PAU 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 67%, PAU 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nimes managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.