Le Havre 1-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Paris FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Paris FC at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.75 xG and Paris FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.819 / defence 0.990 | Paris FC attack 1.155 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 Le Havre games / 2 Paris FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 15% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 6.67 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 1.92. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 15% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Le Havre 0.75 / Paris FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.819 / def 0.990 | Paris FC attack 1.155 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Paris FC xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris FC kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris FC part of?
Le Havre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 15% chance of winning, Paris FC a 52% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Le Havre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D-W. Paris FC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.82) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
15%
6.77
33%
3.05
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.29
1.53
Paris FC xG
6.77
15%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
3%
31.34
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.53 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Paris FC's attacking output running into Le Havre's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Paris FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Le Havre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Paris FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Paris FC 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Le Havre's recent games and 100% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.75 xG and Paris FC 1.53 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Paris FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 15% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 52%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 0%, Paris FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.