Reims 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Reims at 38%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Reims's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Reims have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Rodez (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rodez's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Rodez arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Reims 2–2 Rodez — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Reims — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Rodez — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus Rodez 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Rodez 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.932 / defence 0.787 | Rodez attack 1.079 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.177. Reims have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Rodez's projected output down. Data: built from Reims's last 26 games and Rodez's last 60.

Result probabilities: Reims 38% | Draw 31% | Rodez 31%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.63 | Draw 3.25 | Rodez 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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