Rodez 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Grenoble meet at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grenoble (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Rodez's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Grenoble in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Rodez 2W, Grenoble 4W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Grenoble winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Grenoble — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 70% and Grenoble 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 56% | Grenoble 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.25 xG and Grenoble 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.021 / defence 0.880 | Grenoble attack 0.870 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 59 Rodez games / 59 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 25%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Grenoble 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Grenoble lead the H2H ledger, but Rodez carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 70% | Grenoble 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 43% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Rodez 1.25 / Grenoble 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.021 / def 0.880 | Grenoble attack 0.870 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Rodez (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Grenoble xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Grenoble kick off?
Rodez vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Rodez 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Rodez vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Grenoble part of?
Rodez vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 43% chance of winning, Grenoble a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rodez and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
Record (9 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 3 | Grenoble 4W.
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.02) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.87x) against Rodez's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.15
0.90
Grenoble xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rodez and 0.90 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 22D 19L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.27 PPG from 59 outings (19W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Rodez against 1.27 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (7W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 22D 19L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 18D 22L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Grenoble away?
Rodez's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.41 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
4
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Grenoble have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 72%, Grenoble 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rodez) and 55% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Grenoble?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Rodez's games and 52% of Grenoble's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rodez's recent games and 55% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Grenoble tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.25 xG and Grenoble 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Grenoble attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 43% | Draw 32% | Grenoble 25%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Grenoble 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Grenoble's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.29 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.