Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Annecy 2W, Estac Troyes 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Estac Troyes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Estac Troyes 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 42% | Estac Troyes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.14 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.158 / defence 0.908 | Estac Troyes attack 0.838 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.163. Data: 60 Annecy games / 60 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Estac Troyes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Estac Troyes 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Annecy 1.14 / Estac Troyes 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.158 / def 0.908 | Estac Troyes attack 0.838 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Annecy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Annecy 1 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Annecy vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Estac Troyes part of?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 41% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Annecy and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 2 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Annecy and Estac Troyes in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.84x) against Annecy's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.21
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.02
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Annecy and 0.88 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 25W 15D 20L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 28W 11D 21L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Annecy against 1.58 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Estac Troyes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 28W 11D 21L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Estac Troyes away?
Annecy's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.76 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Annecy or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 48%, Estac Troyes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 45% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 38%; Estac Troyes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Annecy's recent matches and 38% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 45% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.14 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 42%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.50 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.