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Poisson model rates Annecy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Annecy have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Annecy 2W, Estac Troyes 1W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Estac Troyes winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Estac Troyes 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 42% | Estac Troyes 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.14 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.158 / defence 0.908 | Estac Troyes attack 0.838 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.163. Data: 60 Annecy games / 60 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Estac Troyes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Estac Troyes 50%.

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